Tariff Watch March 2025: What’s happening?

Now that Trump’s tariffs are in full effect, we’ll be tracking the effects on the automotive industry and how it specifically applies to electrification, since that’s our beat. How is the process going? What changes are we seeing?

We’ll be updating this post throughout the day with near-real-time updates. Be sure to refresh your browser to see the latest.

March 5th, 2025 at 2:13 PM EST – Here is our official coverage of the tariff exemption. While tariffs are still in effect in other industries, this concludes our coverage of the March 2025 tariff coverage for now. We’ll update our main story if we learn more about what is covered in addition to just the automotive manufacturers themselves.

March 5th, 2025 at 1:47 PM EST – We spoke too soon. CNBC is reporting that Trump has granted a one-month exemption to automakers. It’s unclear if that’s just the mainstream OEMs, or if it’s suppliers. If it’s just the OEMs, costs will still increase as parts will retain the tariffs. We’ll have to see what the White House says.

March 5th, 2025 at 1:44 PM EST – During today’s White House press conference, no news on tariffs was apparently announced. Additionally, Trump went on his own social media network and it seems to indicate progress isn’t being made on tariffs, regardless of what Lutnick is telling the media.

March 5th, 2025 at 12:40 PM EST – Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick told Bloomberg Television that a tariff announcement is still coming today and that the changes are “somewhere in the middle.” It is expected that the automotive industry (at least some of it) will be excluded or delayed for a month. Considering how vast the automotive industry is, it’s unclear if everything would be covered or just the finished product.

March 5th, 2025 at 9:01 AM EST – Last night President Trump addressed a joint session of Congress and didn’t say all that much new regarding the automotive space. Perhaps the only thing of interest that didn’t relate directly to tariffs — which he didn’t say he was going to pull back on — was he wants to make it possible to deduct new car payments on your taxes. We wouldn’t give any credibility to that goal, as it has never been mentioned before and is impossible to offer if your goal is to balance the federal budget.

This morning there is still no news regarding Lutnick’s claim that tariff relief is coming. Automotive stocks are still up on after-hours trading, but most of that was predicated on the notion that tariffs will be reduced today. Maybe that’ll still happen, but it hasn’t happened yet.

March 4th, 2025 at 6:24 PM EST – Trump’s Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick is now saying that Trump will pull back on some of his tariffs — though not all the way — tomorrow at some point. Will that actually happen? Who knows. Market futures are up, of course, but there’s no guarantee we won’t be back here in the future. Plus, we’re not going to believe anything until it comes straight out of the president’s mouth. The tariff rollercoaster rolls on.

March 4th, 2025 at 1:22 PM EST – Trump has threatened to increase tariffs in response to Canada’s retaliatory tariffs. So that’s a thing.

Checking in on the stock market at this hour, there is only one automotive stock that is showing a positive number. That’s Lucid (LCID) up 3 cents, which is an increase of 1.42%. Stellantis (STLA) and Tesla (TSLA) have been fighting each other for the biggest percentage loss all day.

March 4th, 2025 at 10:48 AM EST – The markets are off to a predictably rocky start. The president on his own social network sent out a message continuing to prove that he doesn’t understand how tariffs work.

March 4th, 2025 at 9:22 AM EST – Over on Bluesky, our Editor-in-Chief is running a poll asking respondents which automaker they think will leave the United States first if the U.S. ends up in a prolonged trade war with its allies. You can participate in the poll below.

March 4th, 2025 at 9:16 AM EST – Bloomberg is talking about the impact of the current tariffs (not the Mexican-imposed ones) on the European carmakers. Stellantis is the most exposed, while Volkswagen Group is the second most. Bloomberg expects €5.88 billion of earnings to be wiped out this year in a prolonged trade war.

March 4th, 2025 at 9:10 AM EST – Mexico’s president Claudia Sheinbaum has condemned Trump’s tariffs and will impose retaliatory tariffs this Sunday. It’s unclear why she’s not doing it immediately, other than maybe she thinks this will all be over by then, but this news is breaking so we don’t know yet what items will be tariffed.

March 4th, 2025 at 8:08 AM EST – One other chart making its rounds overnight is this one we’re about to share. It shows, in percentage, how much each state’s gross domestic product (GDP) is tied to trade with Mexico, China, and Canada. Basically, it’s a chart of how leveraged each state is to trade and how cooked each state is in a prolonged trade war. Unsurprisingly, Michigan is the most cooked state, with Texas coming in second.

March 4th, 2025 at 8:00 AM EST – Want a stark graphic showing exactly how much the Trump tariffs are having an effect right out of the gate? This is a skeet on real-time electricity prices before and after midnight EST in New England. It’s worth noting electricity in parts of New England comes, in some amount, from Canada, as we share a power grid and load.

It should be noted that this number can fluctuate throughout any given day and is based on more than just Trump’s tariffs. Weather, system stability, and the alignment of the planets all likely play a role here. Still, it’s not a great graph even if it’s not long-term effective.

March 4th, 2025 at 7:54 AM EST – Trump’s tariffs on Mexico and Canada — 25% — went into effect at midnight. Additionally, Canada’s retaliatory tariffs also went into effect at the same time. China also is putting a tariff on its U.S. imports, though they appear to be agriculturally focused for now.

March 3rd, 2025 at 5:27 PM EST – Things will likely start happening pretty quickly now. Depending on how long automakers think the tariffs will stay intact will dictate much of their next moves. For automakers who are sitting on a ton of inventory of a particular product, those automakers will likely idle those plants. For popular models, idling won’t be much of an option and the automaker will have to start passing on the updated price to the consumer.

For value-focused brands, this could be a nail in the coffin. Long-term tariffs likely mean suppliers who can’t sustain their business models leaving automakers no choice but to cancel models. Even whole automakers could shutter U.S. operations in a prolonged tariff fight. We’ll talk more about those as the near, but don’t be surprised to hear mumblings of closures sooner than later.

March 3rd, 2025 at 4:00 PM EST – The markets have closed in the United States. Here’s how the automotive stocks performed today.

• Dow Jones Industry Average – 📉 -648.87 (-1.48%)
• S&P 500 Index – 📉 -104.78 (-1.76%)
• NASDAQ – 📉 -497.09 (-2.64%)
• GM – 📉 -1.75 (-3.56%)
• Ford – 📉 -0.16 (-1.68%)
• Stellantis NV – 📉 -0.38 (-2.99%)
• Tesla – 📉 -8.33 (-2.84%)
• Rivian – 📉 -0.33 (-2.79%)
• Honda Motor Company – 📉 -0.29 (-1.04%)
• Toyota Motor Corp – 📈 +2.31 (+1.27%)
• Lucid Group Inc – 📉 -0.10 (-4.50%)
• Magna International Inc – 📉 -1.10 (-3.02%)

March 3rd, 2025 at 3:52 PM EST – While not directly automotive related — though it could affect output for sure — newly re-elected Ontario Premier Doug Ford said that if the U.S. moves forward with tariffs, he’ll cut off Ontario’s power exports to the United States. Ontario currently exports power to Michigan, New York, and Minnesota.

“If they want to try to annihilate Ontario, I will do anything — including cutting off their energy — with a smile on my face,” Ford said. The ball is in his court.

March 3rd, 2025 at 3:30 PM EST – President Trump, during a press conference, informs the media that the 25% tariff on Mexico and Canada will go into effect tomorrow as planned. Some estimates place the price of a new car, on average, going up around $3,000, and on some vehicles like pickup trucks that price could go as high as $12,000.

The automotive stocks aren’t responding well.

Additionally, this will affect gasoline prices starting in the Northeast United States, where prices could increase by 20 to 40 cents by this time next week.

March 3rd, 2025 at 1:30 PM EST – The Atlanta office of the Federal Reserve is now projecting that the real GDP growth rate for Q1 of 2025 will be -2.8%.

March 3rd, 2025 at 11:45 AM EST – The Wall Street Journal has a handy guide showing just how interconnected North American trade is, by tracking a single car part from its creation to when it is installed in the final automobile.

March 3rd, 2025 at 11:18 AM EST – Reuters is reporting that Honda will produce the next-generation Civic in Indiana instead of Mexico as originally planned. It’s unwise to chalk this up as a victory for the Trump Administration, as the article indicates that Mexico was chosen because of overall rising costs to produce the car in the United States and Canada and that this decision is attributed to want to see the Civic survive in North America as an offering from Honda.

In some ways, you could attribute that to a win. But the reality is the Civic will certainly become more expensive, and more expensive cars are going to increase the financial burden on the U.S. economy as we slip into a recession.

March 3rd, 2025 at 11:11 AM EST – Mazda reports its February sales numbers, and they are up nearly 7% over this time last year. While Mazda is a small automaker, it’s clear that some people are trying to get ahead of tariffs, no matter what the country of origin is for the vehicle.